Washup on Howard's Wipeout

Peregrine has been on not so much a seven second as a seven day delay and hence this summary comes somewhat after the collective bloghorse has bolted (although no one has heard much out of Mr Bolt himself recently).

Rudd won this election because he found a persuasive narrative that gave concrete reasons why Howard had passed his use-by date. The key to his success was to restrict Howard's economic advantage to the Liberals' citadel seats. The swings in many citadel seats were lower in this election than the previous one with Latham as leader. It seems a proven leader is required to challenge generational incumbency.

Rudd's economic wedging of Howard first on microeconomic issues like grocery and fuel prices and housing affordability then on the macroeconomic issue of interest rates effectively neutralised the economic trump card in the marginals. Throw in workchoices resentment and a swag of outer suburban and regional seats voted Labor, particularly in Queensland where Rudd had both home ground advantage and a swelling band of former One Nation voters suspicious of economic reform. The fortuitous replacement of Peter Beattie seemed to diffuse the council amalgamations issue.

This also explains Rudd's curious assurance that he would not push for referenda on a republic or reconciliation during his first term in office.

This election was thus similar to 1998 - except the marginals preferenced Labor, not the Coalition.

Climate change acted largely as a consensus issue with most voters who turned on economic issues in agreement with Rudd on the environment. The seats of Corangamite and Eden Monaro fell largely on this issue, while swings in numerous South Australian and Victorian rural seats appear to correspond to water concerns. However due to the failure of citadel liberals to consummate their flirtation with progressive politics, few seats fell on this basis alone.

The net result is a clear rejection of workchoices and inaction on climate change. It also indicates a residual concern among liberals that Labor cannot manage the economy. Thus Rudd has a provisional licence to govern and prove his credentials to the community.