Rudd's first statement: in debt according to the voters of Gippsland

By-elections are traditionally unfriendly terrain for governments. They are something like a political Twenty-Twenty match, exaggerating the effect of local issues and suppressing the overall standing of the party leaders. With the government out of election mode, there are few policy handouts to focus self-interest. This leaves the voters to 'judge the government' on its operating machinery, rarely an enterprise the government comes out on top in.

The Gippsland result was consequently never likely to produce a Labor win, however the magnitude of the defeat bears some examination. It is questionable whether Labor's candidate was particularly strong, being neither particularly popular nor having much of a message for people straining under high petrol and food prices. It is possible that he was the fourth or fifth best candidate running. Labor did terribly in La Trobe, Victoria's coal heartland, which was no doubt due to concerns over climate change mitigation taking jobs, living costs and the 'Bundy and Coke' backlash, plus the Liberal candidate was well-known in those parts. It suggests that Gippsland will become a progressively safer seat for the conservatives as time goes on. Indeed, it points to a loss here being catastrophic for both the Liberals and Nationals.

Sheer mathematics may have exaggerated the size of the defeat. There is some argument that the Liberals' decision to field a candidate contributed to some of the anti-National protest vote going to the Liberals and then back to the Nationals via preferences. Certainly Gippsland has a high proportion of former One Nation voters who would not be in broad sympathy with Rudd's agenda on climate change, Asian engagement or reconciliation.

However the effect of these local factors does not excuse Canberra altogether. Following Rudd's election last year, Peregrine made the following observation on the reasons for his high approval:

Rudd's approval rating seems to not be giving him the type of blank cheque voters offered a Coalition government running on 'keeping interest rates low' and border security. It is a loan that he has taken out on promises of taking concrete action on climate change, restoring the position of employees in the labour market, fixing the health system and improving the position of 'working families' on housing affordability, rents, grocery and petrol prices and child care.

The big question will Rudd have the political capital to pay up when the voters collect their debts.

The early evidence from Gippsland is that Rudd might not have spent much political capital but he has not repaid the trust shown in him yet either. The nanoeconomics of petrol and grocery prices are dwarfing all other issues, and Rudd has yet to have any concrete policy achievements on health or housing affordability. On the Gippsland climate change index he is even further behind. Here not only will action be critical, but retraining and business restructuring will be vital as the coal industry plays a major role in this part of Victoria.

In short, Gippsland represents a vote of confidence in the local National candidate and a vote of concern against a government that has not done anything to inspire confidence that jobs will be protected and services will improve. Instead all some voters have seen are long-term aspirations and short-term price rises, things they find even less appealing than Brendan Nelson.

Breaking the economic - emissions growth nexus

The realpolitik challenge of climate change lies in its economics. Although governments and environmental movements alike have long advocated the use of market mechanisms such as emissions trading in concert with traditional regulation and conservation measures, the major stumbling block to building a universal consensus for action is the link between economic growth and emissions growth.

It is axiomatic that, while powered predominantly by fossil fuels, economic growth will result in an increase in carbon emissions. This makes economic transitions from developing to developed countries have an exponential effect on carbon levels and push the atmosphere into dangerous territory. It paradoxically makes the problem more urgent and less amiable to agreement and action. Hence overtly capitalist, free-market theorists and commentators dismiss the need for climate change and heavily critique emissions trading despite its core reliance on market principles.

It is clear that unless this nexus is broken, we will find out exactly how much effect carbon can have in the atmosphere. The key to breaking this nexus comes when our power supplies need to either be replaced or augmented with new installations. That means that renewable energy and low emissions technology such as gas have to be utilised in a way that makes them economic competitors with fossil fuels.

The key tools for this task are a thorough assessment of power station requirements, an emissions trading scheme recognising the true price of carbon, international targets for renewable energy production to stimulate development, international accounting charting a decline in emissions growth versus economic growth, adequate compensation mechanisms for people overly affected by increased prices, vigilant regulators preventing profiteering, removal of artificial barriers supporting coal and oil over gas and encouragement of technology adoption through government initiatives.

We need to attack assumptions such as the supposed inability of renewables (or anything other than nuclear or coal) to produce baseload power. We need to encourage innovative technology and find ways to exploit our geothermal, solar and wave resources rather than our oil. Gas and energy efficiency can set the ball rolling, but wave, solar and wind technology must be facilitated to become more efficient and cheaper.

In short, we need to recast, redefine and adapt our economic structures and the energy delivery systems that power them to subsume environmental and economic responsibility into the one concept. We need to set meaningful targets, design appropriate processes and coordinate action and encourage innovation.

Taking a carrot and stick to Mugabe

It seems that with Mugabe's virtual declaration of war on the MDC, the global community has suddenly started mentioning the 'g' word and the 'R' word. Visions of genocide and the absymal failure of the UN in Rwanda have given a new urgency to measures to rein in the Zimbabwean dictator.

One 'r' word that is key for Mugabe is rejection. Rejected by the international community, he discredits European and American attempts to counsel his behaviour as colonial interference. Rejected by his people, he has manipulated the populace through fear. He has shaken the country like a tree until all the MDC supporters fall out. He cannot accept rejection, so the agents of that rejection must be purged.

Mugabe will continue to menace Zimbabwe unless either saner heads in the ZANU-PF roll him into retirement or his advanced age (or an assasin) catches up with him. A third option is military intervention under the emerging 'duty to protect' doctrine. However it is likely that China would veto an excessively aggressive pursuit of such intervention unless there was broad agreement with its African trading partners. China may not like a human rights mililtary incursion precedent to be set with the ongoing issues in Tibet and Nepal.

A negotiated settlement with Mugabe is not an option. However, a deal for an interim power sharing agreement might be possible under a moderated ZANU-PF. The trick to moderating the ZANU-PF is to allow Mugabe's liberation-era allies the option to give Mugabe a graceful exit and retirement. Zambia has pushed for action, yet South Africa's Mbeki demonstrates a reluctance to push too hard, given his apparent sympathy to some of Mugabe's land-distribution policies.

The international community's role is to freeze Mugabe's influence on the world stage and encourage external nations not to bankroll the regime with either cash or arms. It can also prompt Mbeki to act by offering South Africa either advantageous trade inducements or diplomatic positions on the world stage.

The 'liberation' club could appeal to Mugabe's vanity by reminding him of his advanced years and that his role as 'father of the nation' would best be preserved by not declaring a civil war on his own people. A nation such as Equatorial Guinea, which has done deals with Mugabe in the past, could provide his cronies suitable accommodation. The stick option lies in authorising military action, with a force led by a suitably neutral power such as India under UN auspices, with logistic support from Europe, US and Australia. This could encourage a new solidarity, not between leaders but between people as Africans.

Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold

Our political culture is in great flux. The admirable work of the Piping Shrike has detailed this in a series of posts as a political realignment. The major parties are catching up to the fact that they have no social base and hence are hostage to the nightly news cycle. This gives an apparent fragility to Rudd's stratospheric polling. However it rather forgets what has happened federally is merely an extension of the decline of state Liberal parties to the point of irrelevance. So much so, that in South Australia the Liberal party is now experiencing defections to the federally moribund Family First. A small group of pundits have either diagnosed Rudd as acting as permanently on campaign or like a political bubble ring - held in a kind of stasis by the vortex of his activity. Presumably they believe that Julia Gillard is the dolphin responsible.

Rudd has decided that the media is for the dissemination of this messages, and his chief conduit to said media is rumoured to have a nasty habit of abusing them. Consequently they are taking it personally and according him very little favourable coverage. It also fits within their frame of reference that budgets mean something to politics and that the opposition is merely dormant, to be revived under the appropriate leader once Nelson nicks one to the slips. Hence Rudd is nothing remarkable and will come down to earth once his honeymoon ends. The thought does not enter their collective heads that this is the new reality. Instead, we hear the Whitlamesque fairytale that Gillard will storm the barricades and burn the Treasury benches to the ground like Boudicea. Some in the Canberra Press Gallery witnessed the Whitlam crash firsthand, no one has ever witnessed a federal government sustain ratings in the high 50s.

Into this breach step the Howard-era acolytes, now spurned by the new regime and left to ply their trade on the fringes of mediocrity. They demonstrate a bitter, visceral resentment of Rudd for removing their great leader Howard. The great citadel of Howard's media support is the Australian, which has now altered its brief from acting as government gazette to Her Majesty's loyal opposition. Loyal to Washington, specifically the neo-conservative, market vision, where private wars and global hegemony are de rigeur. Ad hominem argument suits this band as their voice, their tribe, their man is always right and their opponent is always wrong. Hence distracting bloggers by trolling and pouring vitriol is acceptable in the name of new-age Foucauldian information politics. So while taking down those that support the agendas they oppose, they also fly assorted kites to either make the Liberal position appear mainstream, or change the mainstream altogether and push the polity in the right direction. This ad hominem strategy extends to the truly bizarre and inconsistent criticisms of the Rudd government, one minute pro-business, then anti-business, pro-China, then anti-China.

As the polity has moved right through waves of economic prosperity, the traditional Liberal party's role has become almost irrelevant. With Labor concentrating on technocracy, encouraging education and removing the complexity of business regulation, politics shifts to the nanoneconomics of petrol and grocery prices. The Liberals are left with an emoting leader and little else. Climate change represents the position perfectly. The agreed solution is an emission trading scheme - a market mechanism - yet the free market, user-pay Liberals strain to support it and even now seek to make political capital.

If Labor wins the battle on emissions trading, the Liberals will be split between the caterwauling right and the moderate left. The caterwaulers will most likely head to Family First. How much of the party ultimately survives depends on whether Labor can successfully manage this fundamental change into a new political constituency. If economic management becomes covalent with environmental management, then Labor could well benefit from demographic change and make serious realigning inroads into those leafy seats that polls make so tantalising. If the green barrier dissolves in the political sphere, it will dissolve in the minds of voters. One suspects though that long-term ideological, logical and intellectual poverty will eventually cause the party to split unless strong leadership can hold the strands together.

If, however, the politicians fail to act appropriately, then the results could be apocalyptic for all of us.

Wow! Some action from the ICC

Common sense has prevailed

Perhaps they can get their act together and do something about allowing Zimbabwe to play international cricket?

On fatuous comparisons and foolish rules

Tiger Woods' latest major tournament victory has led some headline-challenged commentators to declare he is the best sportsman ever. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to say an athlete is the best ever in their sport is unfortunate, to say they are the best anywhere of all time seems like carelessness. It seems a relative easy call to make - yet narrow down the test and see how difficult it becomes. For Woods to be America's best athlete alone would rule out Carl Lewis, Mark Spitz, Michael Johnson, Michael Jordan, Pete Sampras and Jimmy Connors alone. Not to mention women of the calibre of Martina Navaratilova and Chris Evert.

To even compare across the same sport, one needs to take into account four criteria: quality of performance, consistency, opposition and technology. In golf, Woods has the benefit of incredibly enhanced distance and accuracy due to a revolution in club design. It is impossible to know what Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan or Norman Von Nida for instance might have achieved with the same equipment. There is an argument that Woods' level of achievement has come at a time of great depth on a highly professional tour, but balancing these factors requires a chat around the bar rather than mathematical precision.

It is hard enough trying to compare Sampras and Federer, and they almost overlap with only the interregnum of Hewitt between the two masters. They have near identical records in terms of tournaments won, but whereas Sampras had several titanic tussles with Agassi, some won, some lost, Federer's battles with Nadal appear almost dictated by the surface they compete on. Federer is a great frontrunner, but can he win from behind? All of these factors make comparing one champion, seemingly a prototype of another, highly problematic.

However one thing cannot be in dispute. One athlete stands above all in terms of his uniqueness, if not all-round achievement. That man is Sir Donald Bradman, whose incredible personal average not only made him the greatest batsman ever but carried his entire team, and at times the morale of his nation, along with him. While the quality of his opposition is debatable, his consistency is beyond comparison. Perhaps the closest in icon status is Babe Ruth, whose defection led to the 'curse of the Bambino', which was blamed for the Boston Red Sox failure to win the world series for eighty two years.

Other players have averaged a hundred for a couple of series, but no one has gone near that for longer, despite questionable bowling and batsman-friendly conditions. Yet Bradman could not simply be the best cricketer - cricket has bowlers in it too. So we are left with players who cannot be compared across the same sport, even at the same time, as they have different roles in the team. Everyone can have their own personal favourites, but comparisons of the greatest ever really belong as arguments to be had at the pub, and not in serious journalism.

An argument that should be had in public is the ridiculous outcome in last night's match between England and New Zealand. Sixteen thousand people waited through some of the most depressing weather Birmingham could dish up only to have the game end one over before it could be a full match due to rain. Of course, despite the match being reduced to a 29 over game and not starting til 3pm, the dinner break was left at 30 minutes. This kind of nonsense makes cricket, particularly one day cricket, an international laughing stock. It has not been adequately explained why 10 minutes is sufficient to adjourn a match after twenty overs in 40 degree heat, yet an extra 20 minutes is required when the match lasts twenty four overs in 15 degree drizzle. The ICC should axe this regulation pronto, and allow the interval to be a minimum of 10 minutes with the consent of both captains. Oddly this happens in a test match, but once players set themselves for a fifty over pyjama battle, it appears they will wilt without 30 minutes break.

The Shanahan Principle

That the prominence of Tuesday's Newspoll on the Australian's website is in direct proportion to its favourability to the Coalition.

Can anyone actually find the 59-41 poll on the Australian's website?? Is this a case of not 'Where's Wally' but there are the wallies?

Pop goes the alcopop proxy

It is undeniable that there has been an increase in alcohol-related harm in recent years, whether this be measured by hospital admissions, police reports or sheer anecdotal evidence. It seems that the latest generation of teenagers to run the gauntlet of adolescence have taken to drinking (more) early and (more) often. In response to this, the Rudd government took the most immediate policy action at its disposal, imposing by regulation the same tax scheme to pre-mixed drinks as conventional spirits. The uncharitable have criticised Rudd's move as 'spin and symbols', yet the problems raised by alcohol are so complex that the alcopop tax served as a proxy for real action while that massive effort was weighed, planned and negotiated.

The alcopop tax loophole was created when for reasons best known to itself, the former government chose not to adjust the excise rate charged on alcopops to match conventional spirits. This created a very slippery pathway for young teenagers to move from soft drinks into spirits while not experiencing the paint-stripper style symptoms associated with higher alcohol drinks. While teenagers have always taken up drinking through the high school party scene, the government's tax policy should have assisted in them choosing something other than sugar-coated rum as their poison. The spike in the ready-mixed drink share of the alcohol market, from 3% to nearly 12%, points to a very substantial increase in alcohol consumption through this fiscal misadventure.

However the alcopop debacle is only part of the problem. Greater disposal income, more stress being felt by adolescents in a world of unstable employment prospects and the collateral effect of older siblings' own drinking habits have caused the problem to snowball. The ridiculous hours clubs are open to, coupled with the relaxation of planning provisions and the introduction of mega venues where responsible service of alcohol is not in management's interests create a cocktail of potential violence, drunken behaviour and potential major health ramifications.

Clearly, to address all these problems will require a coordinated effort between local, state and federal government, alcohol manufacturers and club management. The accessibility of alcohol, the concentration of venues and the attractiveness of excessive drinking need to be considered carefully. The idea that it is acceptable to consume twenty drinks a weekend for ten to fifteen years is unsustainable. Yet that kind of intake is more norm than exception. The assumption appears to be that consistent drinking through the week is bad, a sign of alcoholism, but the weekend binge is culturally acceptable. This assumption needs to be examined and researchers must develop responsible guidelines that speak to the long-term effects of 'the binge', rather than just the per diem intake.

Health Minister Nicola Roxon seems intent at present to cover the time lag in taking tough action with party politics against the former government's inaction. The former government's actions in allowing the pre-mixed drink preferential tax treatment and failure to develop any response beyond the obligatory alcohol campaign are worthy of censure. However Roxon would be better served not battering her audience into submission but laying the groundwork for a major social overhaul - one that may eventually see the weekend binge as unwise a social choice as the pack a day cigarette habit.

Setting liberal democratic parameters for free speech

It is interesting to note the minor blogging brushfire breaking out over the prosecution of the Canadian neo-conservative columnist, Mark Steyn, for alleged hate speech comments under British Columbia's anti-vilification laws. The problem anti-vilification laws are bound to run into is the issue of free speech - the purported essence of democratic society. The introduction of anti-vilification law - legislation specifically designed to change behaviour through language and attitude -raises questions as to how to set the boundaries of free speech.

Anti-vilification laws represent a laudable attempt to protect minorities from abuse and work towards a harmonious multicultural society. However, they have failed to address the philosophical challenge posed by an insurgency of conservative commentators. Progressive thought is constantly under attack from those who oppose it. Anti-vilification law, with its focus on behaviour change and centralised control, is tarnished with images of Maoist-Soviet re-education. The sanctions offered by the laws are weak, yet the challenge remains strong. The result is a hatred of the laws, rather than the behaviour, and the false assumption that other cultures are 'protected species'. Anti-vilification laws are seen as a dangerous fetter on free speech, rather than valid laws which should be upheld by the archetypical law abiding citizen.

The idea of anti-vilification is to set parameters for what is and what is not acceptable conduct in society in line with internationally recognised human rights principles. In other words, it goes to fundamental questions of humanity. Rather than being seen, however, as 'behaviour change', instead it should be recast as 'the law of the land'. This is particularly important in the post-terrorism era, where aggrieved persons are easy prey for fundamentalists of all persuasions, and a 'free speech incident' such as an ill-advised cartoon in one country can lead to bombings in another. Failing to bridge the divides between communities, and worse, reinforcing the prejudices as justified resistance to 'political correctness' makes all of us vulnerable to bad neoconservative foreign policy adventures in Iraq, Iran (or insert Muslim country of their choice) and increases the likelihood of terrorist attacks in all corners of the world.

There is a loud chorus of concern that moderate Muslims do not take action to rein in their extremist counterparts. Yet that chorus also sings loudest about the evils of political correctness and refuses to accept that the crude remarks of Jones and his acolytes also demand action. This lack of a causal link speaks to a deeper and perhaps wilful misunderstanding of both other cultures and the nature of terrorist outrages.

Australian speech is partially protected by the implied constitutional guarantee of freedom of political communication. That guarantee means that any law that is not appropriate and adapted to preventing obscenity, libel or incitement to violence and restricts the ability to criticise government policy or access to media during political campaigns is likely to be unconstitutional. It is arguable that in the present climate, a strong anti-vilification law which inteprets say, Jones' laissez-faire response to the Cronulla text messages as worthy of sanction may meet this test for incitement, but it is a grey area.

To play their role to best advantage in the Australian polity, anti-vilification laws need to be remodelled in consultation with those very players who are at the pivot point of the problem. Conservatives and cultural representatives should be brought together for a thorough-going summit on social inclusion, freedom of speech and incitement to acts of violence, vandalism and discrimination. This would be an act of true national leadership and may provide an environment of goodwill and understanding, where issues can be rationally debated. This summit should then lay out a nonpartisan programme for uniform anti-vilification legislation, allowing for strong sanctions such as suspension of broadcasters and ultimately broadcast licences for repeat offenders. This would give the conservatives (and their media masters) most likely to be affected by law changes a hearing in the process and mitigate their concern about the threat to free speech.

The continued attack by conservatives such as Steyn on anti-vilification and other similar laws is neither liberal or democratic. However, without consultation with such parties, the resentment and martyr mentality of the 'political correctness' mindset will continue to thrive and plague our supposedly liberal, democratic and mature society.

Fuel poverty and the emissions trading debate

Much as I hate cheap jargon, expect to hear a lot more of the phrase 'fuel poverty'. Basically it means paying a high percentage of your income in fuel costs (whether that be electricity or even petrol). Given high interest rates, rising inflation particularly in essentials such as food and constrained wages, the usual fury over fuel prices has been exacerbated as people actually start to feel like they are impoverished, not just inconvenienced by petrol prices. The potential for political trouble with the impending emissions trading scheme is palpable. Peter Garrett getting into contortions about including petrol into the emissions trading scheme demonstrates this clearly.

A major problem with emissions trading is the impetus for power companies to pass on the permit costs to their customers, namely the 90+ percent of them who have not taken up Greenpower schemes. The obvious solution is to redistribute the permit costs back to consumers. It seems likely this will be done by a tax credit system, which will probably have to pay credits quarterly in line with utility bills. The system would then be revenue neutral, provide almost no cash-flow issues for ordinary people and achieve carbon reduction targets by the government's overall cap on tradeable permits. The ACCC would have a key role in preventing price gouging by power companies inflating their carbon abatement costs.

However energy usage does not necessarily equate with income either, so government, in conjunction with power companies, will have to even out the discrepancies by commissioning large scale insulation and energy efficient appliance roll-outs to retrofit existing homes in line with new standards. Water companies are currently using similar tactics to improve water usage habits. Another option may be to commission a buyback of inefficient appliances and vehicles, an idea that Tim Flannery has recently floated. For those still under grave threat, short term payments could be made to top up tax credits for excess bills. A further key part of the puzzle lies in switching new power plants to gas co-generation or renewable sources. Government could mandate all new vehicles be run on either LPG or hybrid technology systems.

Running some decent advertising equating energy usage (or abuse) to extra power costs would create more of a sense of personal responsibility rather than government-imposed tax grabs.

The main challenges needing action are to compensate people affected by higher prices, spread the risk from energy bills more evenly across the population and most importantly, educate the people to understand how they can help with climate change and how the government is not committing daylight robbery.

A possible related reform could be brought into business taxation. Business could sign up for an eco-charter where they pay a reduced tax rate in exchange for signing up to stricter environmental standards and responsibilities. This could be particularly useful for corporations in counteracting the 'only duty is to shareholders' mantra, which has left corporate social responsibility aspirational at best. This would eliminate the need for onerous carbon input systems or providing wholesale tax credits for business.

Emissions trading is not a panacea but a market correction mechanism that allows lower emission fuels such as gas, renewables such as solar, wind and tidal and higher emission fuels such as coal to compete on an environmentally level playing field. Designed appropriately, it could potentially restructure our economic foundations in a way that promotes sustainable growth well into the future.

I shredded my economic credibility and all I got was this lousy 5% preferred PM bounce

Forgive the headline but that may just be what's going through Brendan Nelson's mind this morning. For he has set up his party to either indulge in fiscal vandalism or show a fatal lack of policy consistency. Of course, when dealing with Brendan's Libs, you feel like Rosencrantz and Guildernstern in Tom Stoppard's play, as they vainly shout 'consistency is all I ask'! While there are occasional bursts of passion, there is too much confused thought between them.

There may be a large section of the media who believe Rudd is some kind of self-proclaimed messiah and an equally large section that feels he is well-qualified for the spin vacancy created by MacGill's retirement. However, if one looks at the nonsensical suggestions coming out of the Liberal bunker, it becomes clear that the Nationals are not the only party struggling for relevance.

Nelson's budget response appears to consist of blocking the alcopops tax and FuelWatch and raising the possibility of blocking the Medicare surcharge changes. It seems having totally mismanaged its Senate majority in government, the Libs are set to do so in opposition by a display somewhere between petulance and wilful obstructionism.

It is almost as if they believe some of the dribble that Rudd's government will implode in Whitlamesque fashion. Whereas Whitlam's mantra was crash or crash through, Rudd's mantra may as well be commission an inquiry to see if there's an obstacle ahead and then go around the back way.

Precisely how the Libs plan to pay for this nonsense is another matter. Given they cannot decide either whether there is severe inflationary pressure or not, it suggests they should seek to reduce government spending, not government revenue. The alcopops tax and the excise combined will cost something between $3-4 billion, and the Medicare surcharge (by Brendan's admission) around $500 million. It does not compute.

Nor should Nelson get too carried away with that 5% preferred PM bounce - it's not that they like him any more - his dissatisfied numbers actually crept up (within MOE) to 40%, they're just not too happy with Rudd's performance last week, probably based on a false impression of what he actually promised. Given the correlation between those who think Labor promised lower prices and those unhappy with last week, Rudd might become the first politician in history to run ads reminding us of what he promised at the last election.

So the Libs got nowhere from blanket media coverage on a hot button issue that Labor got major mileage out of in opposition, and what gains their leader made are based on a misrepresentation of Labor's election promises. That does not augur well for the future of a credible or responsible opposition.

Rudd's seismic faultlines

Kevin Rudd has commanded a very degree of support against an initially stale then plain out incoherent alternative. However that megalithic support does not come without risks, some of which are now poking out into the collective consciousness. Most of Rudd's risks stem from a clash of worthy but contradictory policy positions, complicated by prejudices and assumptions inherent in the Australian political context.

The most obvious - and yet to be played out fully - is the clash between his firm support for climate change action and his emphasis on government minimising the pain felt to households through higher grocery, fuel and utility prices. This clash is further complicated by the national addiction to cut-price (compared to world standards) fuel. Complicating this clash further is the need to protect the mining workforce from suffering while alternative technology is being developed. It is interesting to note that the Resources Minister, Martin Ferguson, is a former head of the ACTU and an advocate for carbon capture and storage. Ferguson is not going anywhere in the forseeable future, as he will clearly be needed to persuade the unions as much as Garrett is required to persuade the public.

Labor needs to work out a way to deliver meaningful carbon cuts, restructuring mining industries and protecting the public from economic pain in a way that is both environmentally and philosophically sustainable. One suspects one will need continuing, almost indispensable levels of popularity among the party faithful to push through such an agenda.

Another brewing clash operates on a more personal level, but still exhibits the dynamic of clashing policy imperatives within a wider political context. Rudd came to power with considerable support from the anti-WorkChoices juggernaut. While Rudd clearly wants to distance himself from the more onerous of the ACTU's demands, the issue of the infamous work/life balance remains moot. Rudd's slogan ad nauseam is working families - and an essential part of that work is not working them to the bone, like WorkChoices could potentially do without the compensation of penalty rates.

However at the same time, Rudd is an acknowledged workaholic. Whereas Garrett might have sung for Midnight Oil, Rudd burns the stuff on a par with China's growing carbon emissions. Not only that, Rudd is rumoured to suffer from a bad case of 'unempathetic boss syndrome'. Sufferers of UBS believe that their employees should work exactly the same amount they do, regardless of their other commitments or the level of importance of their work. Anyhow, this is bringing howls of protest from the public service, which Rudd is currently using to flay the previous government with. Fortunately for Rudd, everyone believes the public service is lazy, but if this problem escalates to strikes or mass resignations then it could potentially expose Rudd's position on work issues as hypocritical and counterproductive.

There is just the smallest possiblility that this crack in the facade could open up and start to make Hockey the WorkChoices salesman look like his amiable self again. If the Liberals do recast themselves as caring, sharing populists, it might lead to appalling policy on their part but at least keep them competitive when history suggests they are two steps away from being booted out the tenth storey window.

Under Nelson, the opposition looks set to capitalise on whatever whingeing group of disenfranchised it can and feel their pain. If they are genuinely badly off, that will give credibility to the whole approach. While Nelson and his acolytes seek to hold off their inevitable demise (either by extinction or Turnbull) they will clutch to any old piece of flotsam going past. Rudd needs to maintain integrity in his decision making and policy program to convince the people of the merits of his government and the flimsiness of the alternative.