Why applying the lessons of the past does not always work

Brendan Nelson made his alternative PM debut at the National Press Club yesterday. After plumbing the depths of opinion poll hell by becoming Brendan 007, he has adopted the very simple philosophy of trying to be himself. Nelson's natural personality is a blend of emotion and protection of self-interest, which may explain why he initially joined Labor but rose to be the Liberal leader. It also explains this off-the-cuff plea to define our values against terrorism.

My children’s generation is facing something that isn’t all that easy to see in day-to-day life, but it is resurgent totalitarianism which in the form, in the main, of Islamic extremism throughout the world and we have to be clear about precisely what we stand for and what we will do with our allies throughout the world.

The problem with this rhetoric, which seems to be setting the Liberals up to become lock-stepped to McCain's policy of confrontation, is that it betrays the conservative belief that communism and Islamist philosophy are similar political doctrines. The only thing communism and Islamism have in common, other than being 'isms', is a tendency towards greatly curtailing individual freedom. Communism relies on individuals subordinating themselves to the state for the greater good, while Islamism relies on individuals wholly embracing a narrow interpretation of the Koran. One sees the state as the ultimate entity, while the other sees it as a collection of true believers.

The real difficulty for conservatives schooled in Cold War politics is that Islamism is a totally different beast. Whereas communism evolved into a struggle between two global superpowers, each offering an alternative view on government and political organisation, Islamism has no such power base. Islamism has control of no government, but in the age of globalisation it has employed the same kind of franchise and internet delivery systems favoured by corporations such as McDonalds and Dell. The Cold War relied on two mighty military machines conducting a series of proxy wars against each other. Islamism is not reliant on military might. It relies on winning the battle of ideas, a battle it can shape by using the modern media techniques of spin and alleging to speak for the disenfranchised.

The US seems to seriously believe that fighting Islamist inspired fighters in Iraq is equivalent to fighting the proxy Soviet forces of the Viet Cong. The problem is that the war on the ground does not itself frustrate the movement. On the contrary, it provides it with great media attention and a legitimacy it craves as the standard bearer for Arab and Muslim grievances from Morocco to Indonesia.

The best way to deal with the issue is not to promote Islamists to the level of the Supreme Soviet. The greatest mistake made since 2001 has been the invasion of Iraq, a high risk strategy which was poorly executed. The second mistake has been the mishandling of domestic terrorist legislation and investigations and the failure to bring communities together rather than harness division for political ends. If Nelson is serious about the values that bind us as a nation, he would drop his value-based assault on public schools, an assault that leads to less unity and greater secretarian education of the next generation.

Paler shade of Crean

It appears that the most effective opposition to Kevin Rudd is coming from the grave. Not the graven undertaker like-manner of the Opposition Leader, but the political grave of one JW Howard and the physical one of one Joh Bjelke Petersen. Howard has lacerated Rudd's IR reforms and Iraq policy in one of his paid junket American conservative love-ins. Rudd turned up on Four Corners' Joh retrospective the other night in his former incarnation as 'Dr Death'. One of young Kev's coup de grace was the locking of a bunch of Joh-engrained civil servants in the basement until they dutifully resigned. Given this masterstroke, it is clear when the PM talks about dealing with the public service, he is not kidding.

From the actual opposition, we have the kind of attitude usually seen by schoolkids in the last days of Year 10, before the reality of study in senior school really kicks in. Downer, Vaille, MacGauran and the rest seem to be on an endless summer, turning up when they want and generally treating Nelson with the disdain usually reserved for casual teachers. His authority is crumbling at roughly the same speed as the programme that put him there, with nuclear power, workchoices, AWAs, Kyoto and the apology being dropped in the most mangled and painful fashion conceivable. Other than putting up candidates against Labor, there is not a lot left of the old Howard legacy and even less in its place. Nelson and Turnbull have mounted a token defence of the economic record, but quite frankly a bit of mea culpa about productivity might give the Liberals a bit more credibility in the eyes of punters still smarting at having their private economic hell consistently denied by Howard.

Herein we come to Nelson's problem. His poll numbers are lower than Crean because his voice disappears into a haze before it reaches the viewers, he is caught in the continuing gravitational vacuum left by the collapse of the Howard government and he has absolutely no policy ideas on the table. His opposition performance relies on picking holes in positive policy, but even this is ham-fisted. Until he at least comes up with something, those numbers will remain trapped in their downward spiral.

Throwing the baby faced out with the bathwater

Ricky Ponting's appalling series with the bat has culminated with a 2-0 defeat in the CUB final series and the punters are tearing into Punter faster than a Brett Lee yorker. One of their key complaints is that Lee was preferred in the closing stages of India's batting innings in Brisbane than almost-match winner James Hopes. The argument being pushed is that Ponting himself should hand in his captain's arm band before he is pushed.

This course is a little knee-jerk in its nature. Peregrine called for Ponting to be rested early in the series and Michael Clarke to be given a run. There are two main styles of leadership among cricket captains: performance-based and tactic-based. Ponting is a performance based skipper par excellence, relying on dominating the game with his broad bat and imposing his character on his team and their efforts in the field. The one failing that performance-based skippers have is when their performance drops, so does this captaincy. Ponting has gradually developed some tactical nous, mainly through having to handle the formerly freewheeling Shaun Tait, and latterly through utilising Nathan Bracken. However he does have a tendency to rely on Lee to take wickets, even when Lee's form does not suggest this is a likely outcome.

Clarke demonstrated great tactical skill in his demolition of New Zealand and India in the 20/20 fixtures. He is the obvious choice to lead the next World Cup campaign. The resting Ponting theory would have allowed Clarke a trial run and given some more match experience to the likes of Haddin, David Hussey and perhaps George Bailey from Tasmania. It is extraordinary that Victoria and Tasmania played the one day final and none of their respective squads appeared in the one day international team. The staleness and stagnation of that national team, coupled with some inspired opposition led by the multi-talented MS Dhoni, have produced this igminious result.

The challenge for selectors now is to balance the need for rejuvenation against the need for continuity within the team. The trip to Pakistan, if it goes ahead, represents an opportunity to pick an in form, balanced squad, particularly if Symonds (who has clearly laboured under his injured ankle for much of the summer) does not go. The selectors erred by not persuading Ponting that a rest of his back and his mind were best for his and the teams long-term interest. Ponting now probably has one season to decide whether he should continue in the one-day format.

Symonds was treated in a similar manner. By my reckoning, he played every match of the season even when only 75% fit. As a bowling allrounder, he contributed less than ten overs for the one day series, while his best replacement in David Hussey massacred attacks in both 20/20 and one-dayers. Pakistan represents a chance to correct these mistakes. If the team decides to go. That is another matter entirely.

Battling cynicism inflation and the expectation deficit

The wave of enthusiasm that swept Kevin Rudd to power creates a unique set of problems. There is an enormous sense of energy and movement about the government, with major milestones such as Australia's induction into the Kyoto Protocol's membership and the apology to the stolen generations already complete within the first hundred days. Such symbolic touchstones of policy formed one part of Rudd's appeal. The other was the promise to address those microeconomic 'kitchen table' issues such as interest rates, rent and grocery prices. The very issues accentuated by the Howard Government's blind pursuit of macroeconomic success.

The ruckus over the membership of the 2020 steering committee demonstrates one part of the danger for Rudd. As a progressive vehicle for facilitating the development of a future vision, the bald announcement of nine male (mostly balding) chairs and one solitary female chair was not 'a good look'. It later turned out that numerous women had declined posts, which Rudd swiftly remedied by appointing six female ministers as deputy chairs. The assorted complaints from Eva Cox and Susan Ryan, among others, that the committee membership was a hoary throwback to men-only decision making, meant that the somewhat oddly-maligned summit was overshadowed by more controversy. Rudd does however, need to be careful that in areas such as indigenous and foreign policy he is not seen to adopt the same posture as his predecessor. The controversy over the self-congratulatory 'First 100 Days' pamphlet, led more than the odd voter to say this behaviour reminded him of Howard's prolifigate use of government adveristing.

In an interview in his capacity as chair of the social inclusion committee, Tim Costello referred to the summit as an exercise in 'expectation management'. The danger created by high expectations is an equally high risk they will be disappointed. The great risk for Rudd that his gestures towards price insulation for his new constitutency will be seen as mere window dressing. It is very hard to be free market and cut red tape on one hand and use regulatory measures on the other. It is especially hard to maintain fair prices for items such as groceries and petrol, particularly in a climate with rising fuel costs. Rudd needs to be seen to maintain his empathy with struggling voters and they need to see his efforts to improve their position.