Having seen the demise of the deputy, the quest (and it is a long and arduous journey, one half expects it to be directed by Peter Jackson) to find the global sheriff's replacement is on in, well, stage-managed, media confected earnest. Unlike our wonderful system of internal machinations, Americans are rather fond of ritually electing every position possible. Which brings us to the primaries.
Owing to the malignant albatross around Bush's neck, Dick Cheney, being the Vice-President and Condoleeza Rice showing no current interest in higher office following the 'pick up seashells' adventure in Iraq, the Republican candidature is about as clear as the chowder unfortunate candidates get served up on a myriad of campaign stops. So we have both the Republicans and Democrats running competitive primary races.
Both sides have apparent front runners. The Democrat juggernaut-in-chief is attached to one Hillary Clinton, Senator for New York. Curiously, the putative Republican frontrunner is former New York mayor Rudi Guiliani. Has some odd revolution occurred where people suddenly listen to the Yankee states again? Probably not, but the mid-term elections demonstrated the visceral hatred held for the Iraq deployment and disapproval at the abject presidency and behaviour of Congress.
Hillary's campaign is based around the idea that she is the professional, assured and experienced candidate from central casting. Peregrine's distant observation here is that it is Kevin07 without the self-deprecating humour. Hillary's rivals are Barack Obama, who seems to be trying to be the postmodern Kennedy with his appeals to a hope for a better America while being tough on terrorists, John Edwards, whose candidacy is towards the left of the US spectrum is the other frontline contender. Behind them are Bill Richardson, former energy secretary, US Ambassador to the UN and governor of New Mexico and Joe Biden, senator and haunter of foreign policy committees. Hillary's fanbase constitutes a solid bloc of Democrat voters in the larger states, but she has to rely on enough generic Democrats to feel she will provoke the Republicans marshalling to prevent her return to the White House. Hillary is viewed in the traditional Livia mould of the scheming hand behind the throne by her Republican adversaries.
In order to get the nomination, candidates need a coalescence of fundraising and consequent advertising capability and the ability to carry voter support in various states. On paper, Clinton and Obama are competing for the same solid Democratic areas on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, Edwards should pick up support in the Mid-West and the South and Richardson should do well in the South-West. Interestingly, Obama is doing better than Clinton in the Iowa polls. Peregrine suspects that the key factor will be whether nagging doubts about Obama's capability or concern over the polarising Hillary phenonmenon win the day.
On the Republican side...oh dear, oh dear. The party is wedded to bringing out the 'Christian conservative' vote for it to carry the day. The only reason the Republican party can ever even win a presidental election these days is because it relies on a lot of voters voting against their own economic interests. A big factor may well be the pain Iraq is causing to small town communities voting Republican. Early leader John McCain really won't do it again because of his hawkish attitude to Iran. After recent intelligence revelations, he is not likely to improve his ground. Rudi Guiliani has the 9/11 gravitas angle to run on, but has been accused of exploiting it. Not to mention his curious way with women (including one he announced his separation from via a press conference) which is not likely to endear him as a champion of family values. Still Guiliani does remain competitive as a moderate candidate with national security credentials.
Behind these two is the strange case of Mitt Romney, the Mormon who dare not speak his name about anything. On values, it is as though he took his paintball gun loaded with enlightened positions on abortion, gun control and taxation and traded it in for an NRA rifle, fully loaded with the views of the 'Christian Right' (or as Perergine prefers 'the Unchristian wrong'). Compared to Romney, the hapless Kerry was a model of consistency. Mitt might have a name for baseball but it is only the sheer apparent hopelessness of the Unchristian wrong's prospects that even led to his candidacy being taken seriously. What the Republicans really want is to have Schwarznegger run for president.
In the meantime, another Unchristian wrong pretender, Fred Thompson, was drafted to run. Fred reminds me of Comedy Inc's superhero Blokeman, who saves the day but doesn't work Sundays or me day off. Fred has a youthful wife who is a high powered operative, and is probably hoping to run as Messalina to Fred's Claudius. Only Fred seems by his lack of enthusiasm to be doing the pumpkinification for his opponents, even walking out of a campaign stop to eat a burger on his bus.
The search for a credible contender has led to Mike Huckabee, a hoky multi-term Governor of Arkansas. Huckabee is playing the Bush Trojan horse game of appearing folksy, conservative and ingenue. No he is not. A former Baptist minister, Huckabee espouses rejection of evolution and a flat tax policy. Huckabee has flown under the radar but one does wonder what the media might do with him once he gets into their sights.
Huckabee is going to do pretty well in the southern states. The critical question is whether he can eliminate Romney's plastic challenge and get into a direct fight with Guiliani. If he can, he has some hope of getting the nomination. If not, Guiliani has to be a strong chance.
When America finally votes, we will have some idea of the conviction the various campaigns have instilled in the voters.
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