Hunt's frolic to outfox Rudd

During the Bali Conference, a rather extraordinary thing happened. The Greens' Christine Milne welcomed Greg Hunt, officially the shadow minister for the environment, appearing to accept the need to set 25-40% domestic binding emissions targets by 2020. Given until earlier this year it was not even certain his leader, the Colossus of Roads, John Howard, put climate change theory on a higher pedestal than the Easter Bunny and Santa, this would seem to be an almighty party conversion on the way to Damascus. Or Bali, which I presume some flights to Damascus have been known to stopover at.

Sensing a majoritarian issue, Hunt tried a remarkable piece of sophistry dressed up as environmental commitment. Rudd was welshing on his climate promises because he would not sign up for the 25-40% range. Hunt allegedly gave Rudd 'the green light' to sign up to a text stating a 25-40% negotiation range.

No he did not. Hunt got a licence from the party firm of Nelson, Turnbull and Downer to try and wedge Rudd. Nelson listed five criteria for the Bali text to meet the national interest:

The first was that no targets should be binding and the second that targets should not be set for each country. Dr Nelson also wanted to be able to have time to do economic modelling on any proposed targets.

So Hunt wanted to sign up to the text precisely because the targets were non-binding. Rudd firmly believes in a 60% binding target by 2050, regardless of the economic modelling. It is the interim that he seeks the modelling on, an approach which has drawn flak from both sides. The only modelling Brendan could conceivably do is either to find where in the 25-40% spectrum Australia could sit or to junk the Bali committment. The entire approach is either economically or diplomatically unsound.

A Liberal leadership constituted as a compromise to appease Howard loyalists and propped up by the kingmaker from WA, Julie Bishop's numbers is not going to take kindly to an emission reduction target set without any modelling. WA Liberals may behave something like their northern cousins in Alberta on such reductions and become positively mutinuous.

Greg Hunt clearly does believe that action is required on climate change. However he is constrained within a party where denial was de rigeur for the best part of a decade. Unfortunately, his attempts at autonomous policy are at best likely to be used as a good old Howardian wedge. At worst, they may have all the substance of a maringue - sugar-coated hot air. A serious Liberal climate conversion will not come until the party undergoes a major reexamination of its role in the new order.