Nelson in search of Trafalgar...he won't find it with Garrett

Possibly the best thing about the unlikely ascension of Brendan Nelson, possibly the only medical doctor to sit on a front bench and never go near the health portfolio, is the ready list of allusions to that great English naval hero. Nelson, whom Peregrine took to calling The Human Cockatoo some years back owing to his unique coiffure (perhaps the real reason why Bronwyn the anti-socialist has been recalled was as special advisor on hair care?), sounds like the sort of soft-spoken individual needed to soothe the ructions in the post-Howard Liberal party.

The key target at the minute appears to be Peter Garrett, who Nelson has promised to chase down every foxhole, alcove and locked vault Labor attempt to hide him from scrutiny. Aha! perhaps if Labor had gone after Tony Abbott when he was elevated to the frontbench many moons ago, it would have got itself elected prior to the Sydney Olympics. Nelson appears to be chasing a chimera. Rudd has separated out climate change and water from Garrett's responsibiities. This has much more to do with the fact that both the jobs require negotiation and economic management, whereas the environment portfolio is essentially cause-based. Hence appointing the negotiator, Penny Wong, to the job makes more sense than the advocate Garrett. If memory serves, there is no hard and fast relationship between answering questions in one house or the other and any similar portfolio.

Nelson has an unenviable problem in the fact that he has to balance 'the Howard legacy', the raging bull, Malcolm of Wentworth and a complicated set of factional rivalries. The Liberal kingmaker, Julie Bishop, is trying her darndest to model herself on Julia Gillard, shadowing her in both the deputy and IR roles. This should in no way surprise given both are IR lawyers. Meanwhile, the good doctor has decided to rely on the wisdom of another Kevin, the disembodied 'tremendous amount of wisdom' and former minister Kevin Andrews. Apparently he is an authority on federal-state relations. Given Andrews' views are best typified by his skillful use of s109 of the Constitution to invalidate the NT's voluntary euthanasia law, it appears the cooperation he will advocate will be of the jackboot variety.

Given the kingmaker's followers are WA work choices supporters, there is a serious question about how they are going to react on supporting Labor's legislation. Nelson is the compromise candidate elevated because Abbott is beyond redemption, not because anyone seriously thinks he is the best leader. He would look like a total mug given his ALP background if he rejected the legislation, but he could well lose support from Bishop's posse if he accepted it.

Malcolm's support comes from a very small group who actually believe in liberal principles (at most maybe ten or so), plus a somewhat larger share of pragmatists. Pragmatism plays a key role here as none of the candidates have both a core group of party supporters or widespread public appeal.

Personality-wise, Nelson conveys an image somewhere between calming and comatose. Depending on how things are going, this either works to his advantage or runs the serious risk of appearing like Crean without the character. Abbott is a hopeless case who will probably inadvertently end up apologising for everything. He is more like Latham than Michael Duffy ever knew and hence no one would put him in charge of anything. Malcolm has something of a Whitlam-esque pompousity to him. He very much conveys the idea of a crash or crash through persona. He undoubtedly has a high intellect and equally high opinion of his own capabilities. The question would be could he fashion sufficient stability in the party and his support base to justify his election.

All of this is a product of the chaos rent by Howard's treatment of Costello as a latter-day Tiberius. Howard did not want Costello to succeed him and did everything possible to set up alternatives. Abbott and Nelson were both elevated and both proved unelectable. Turnbull was then introduced, but he went feral. Brough was the last to be groomed, but he went down with the ship.

Nelson's column of support is made of less stern stuff than its namesake. His key challenges are to find a sensible and coherent partyline on workchoices and climate change. At the minute, the Liberals are behaving like they haven't lost the election, but mum and dad have popped out for the afternoon and left the kids running the house. Mum and Dad are never coming back and the kids have to grow up if they want to get themselves seen as a competent alternative government.