Reining in the Puritans

Brendan Nelson, aka The Human Cockatoo, has adopted the radical policy of 'listening to the Australian people'. The first two manifestations of this are his approval of Rudd's lodging of ratification papers to the Kyoto Protocol and his declaration that workchoices is dead. These are fine words, although Nelson has also refused to guarantee fulsome support for the ratification legislation for Kyoto nor the repealing of workchoices. Until we see an unequivocal commitment to do so, doubts over the substance of these statements will remain.

Nelson has one small problem. He is the compromise candidate to keep both Abbott (unelectable) and Turnbull (unpalatable) out of the leadership. His leadership is underwritten by one Julie Bishop and her posse of WA MPs. They happen to believe workchoices was endorsed by their constitutents and that the eastern states failed to follow the one true path. Their zeal for the policy verges on the puritanical, and they have been beneficiaries of the Howard era purging of traditional liberal sentiment from the party. Most of them are of the less enlightened side of the party on climate change.

The Liberals have a real problem. In order to look even vaguely relevant, they have to junk their main planks of policy difference, which will also alienate the very people supporting the leadership. However, if they do not, they will fall further behind in the polls and run the risk of becoming a splintered conservative grouping rather than a coherent party. At some point, the Liberals will not be able to rely on voters who formed their opinions when either Chifley or Whitlam was in office.

Whether Nelson can keep a veneer of party solidarity on these issues remains to be seen. However, it is unlikely that the pro-Howard forces will go quietly into the centre. More likely, if concessions are made on workchoices and Kyoto, the Puritans will want some serious stands in return. This may explain the continued tough talking on refusing an apology for the Stolen Generation. It seems pretty clear that Nelson will have to try and capitalise on any disquiet caused by climate change policy purely to maintain the illusion of his own competitiveness.