Defending the pass at Thermopylae

Kevin Rudd's debut on the world stage must be perplexing to his global audience. On the one hand, he has speedily entered the ratification papers for the Kyoto Protocol and made a number of statements which come straight from the Al Gore playbook. On the other, reports filter through from the negotiations that Australia is either 'not being as forceful as it might' or is actively watering down the text of the Conference communique to remove references to 2020 targets. In some quarters, Climate Change Minister Penny Wong is seen as spokesperson for the recalcitrants.

Rudd is in a bind to act responsibly. To act responsibly on climate change and stave off the eternal skepticism about Labor's economic management he needs to have the Garnaut report to hand to buttress its credentials domestically. This is basically what Rudd told the assembly yesterday.

Rudd's posse of ministers and diplomats is playing the role of the three hundred Spartans at Thermopylae. They are desperately defending the pass that links the global goodwill shown to Australia on ratifying Kyoto and condemnation for inaction on climate change. Like the Spartans, they are waiting for the token Athenian response, i.e. the Garnaut Report, to sweep in and save the day.

It is not clear how much carriage Rudd has of the negotiation strategy, but it appears that Australia is attempting to use the lag required between Bali and the Garnaut Report to strengthen its influence over the recalcitrant countries, namely the US, Japan and Canada. Rudd is clearly building on Australia's Howard-era tardiness alliance with the US (and latterly Canada) to build bridges towards a tenable agreement.

The federal system in the US is working well to counteract Bush's inertia, with a network of Pacific and Atlantic states developing a domestic emissions trading scheme and legislating mandatory targets. This has created a groundswell of opinion in favour of climate action by the next administration. At a Republican presidential debate, candidates were asked whether they agree with global warming - it is now an ethical issue relevant to candidates' credentials.

In Canada, the federal system is under pressure from the massive divergence between the eastern provinces, namely Ontario and Quebec which favour climate action and the vulnerable western (and very affluent courtesy of the mining and oil boom) provinces of Alberta and British Columbia which do not. Harper's climate-skeptic government is entirely composed of the western mindset, making it seriously unrepresentative in the international forum.

Peregrine suspects that the role of countries such as Australia and the US will be vital in getting any agreement. The key issue is going to be whether Canada can be dragged to the table. That in turn will require heavy influence from the US. Given Canada's outlier position, it does not seem likely that a text demanding immediate agreement to a 25-40% negotiation range will pass.

Rudd is attempting to use the same strategy on the world scale that he has to win domestic election. He is making a promise to sign up to 25-40% targets once the economic impact is in. It remains to be seen whether the UN will accept credit for its climate measures.