Rudd's vote as soft as corundum

Yesterday's Newspoll has Labor streaking away into the distance with 51% of the primary vote. Intrigued by Labor's consistently high primary vote, I had a perusal of Newspoll's primary votes from the halycon days of Hawke.

Newspoll's public record goes back to November 1985. In the following year, Hawke recorded 8 polls with a primary vote of 46% or greater. In 1987, Hawke recorded 14 46+ polls including 3 polls over 50%. In 1988-89, Hawke only scored over 46 twice and then Keating scored over 46% three times in 1992 during Liberal leadership strife. After winning the 1993 election, Keating had 4 succesive 46+ polls. After 1994, there is not a single Labor poll above 45% until 2000.

Labor's opposition record looks like this:

Rudd (2006-07) - 21 consecutive polls over 45% - 6 polls 50% or more.
Latham (2004) - 1 poll over 45%
Beazley (2000-01) - 6 polls over 45%

We can conclude that Beazley had a period where he did comparatively well from a flowback of One Nation voters and Latham was a truly ephemeral phenomenon, exploding in a magnesium flash shortly before polling day.

On the subject of streaks, Howard's second incarnation in 1995-97 received 35 46+ results, although it should be noted the Liberal vote tends to hold up more than the Labor vote. Streaks that long do not end overnight.

If pollsters and columnists want to muse on the softness of Rudd's vote, they may wish to avert their eyes from the data. If we look at the duration of these consecutive poll streaks for both parties above say, 10, we get the following:

Howard (Aug 1995 - Jan 1997) 35 [Number of opp polls less that 40% - 24]
Rudd (Feb - Oct 2007) 21 [18]
Hewson (Aug 1993 - Feb 1994) 15 [11]
Hewson (Aug 1990- Oct 1991) 14 [12]
Hawke (Mar - Sep 1987) 14 [1]

Rudd's popularity appears to have turned what are usually peaks in the electoral cycle into his base vote. Whereas the Labor vote collapsed over several years, going into marked decline in 1989 and 1990, via Democrat preferences (which went to Labor at the 1990 election), then residing with the Liberals under Hewson, the Liberal vote has been eroded from mid 2005 onwards, first going to Greens and other minor parties and consolidating with Labor under Rudd's leadership.

The chimera of hope these figures produce for the Libs (Hewson's implosion) should be tempered by the fact that neither of Hewson's runs came during an election year.

From the above, there is only one leader since 1985 who has had such sustained ratings in Newspoll and he didn't lose the election. Or the next three.

Rudd's vote is based on a consistent consolidation of voters disaffected with the Liberal/National parties for any number of reasons. A zephyr blew in in mid 2005, about the time Howard considered resigning. Clouds gathered with Workchoices and now a full-blown perfect storm is brewing, a decade of disappointment, resentment and grudges ready to unleash on the hapless government.

For Rudd to lose he has to be brought down below 45%, something that happened only once since he assumed the leadership. The Liberals and their country friends have to find a diamond out of the mound of rough they find themselves in otherwise they will find themselves between a rock and a very hard place indeed.