One of these seats is not like the others

Three safe Liberal city seats. One in Brisbane (Ryan) and two in Sydney (North Sydney and Warringah). All three seats have margins of around 10-11%. Here the adjective blue ribbon is not just applied to ice cream. The Courier Mail has listed Ryan as one of two seats the Coalition is in dire straits. Labor has released polling showing it leads 53-47 in North Sydney. Labor only released the candidate's name in Warringah after the election was called.

What is going on here? Perhaps it is Warringah's track record of never returning a non-conservative MP? True, North Sydney was held by the independent Ted Mack and Ryan revolted to Labor at a by-election in 2001. However, this ignores the 2001 election result in Warringah, where former NSW independent MP, Peter MacDonald forced the race to preferences, only losing on the back of the Tampa-September 11 kinghit.

Maybe the redistribution has put Warringah above even the high watermark of a tidal wave of Rudd support. Why then did Labor pre-select its candidate for Bradfield, margin 17.6%, weeks before Warringah?

In fact, Warringah was the last seat in New South Wales, and possibly the country, where Labor even preselected a candidate. Having latterly announced the candidature of Hugh Zochling, Labor appears to have cordoned off campaigning. One group of citizens is so concerned at the lack of interest by candidates that it has launched something called the Warringah worm to register issues of note in the electorate.

Certainly Labor has to ration its resources somewhere. With so many Coalition seats on the table, the chance to capitalise on a favourable redistribution in neighbouring Bradfield is probably more appealing. Or is there something more strategic at play?

The local member for Warringah is Tony Abbott, the Health Minister whose bedside manner clearly needs some work. Perhaps Rudd is banking on unpopular Coalition figures like Abbott keeping their seats and being the ugly face of an unelectable opposition. Given the somewhat questionable feelings of Peter Costello towards a long dark night of opposition, the tacticians may be looking at future contenders.