More Canadian Club than Irish invention

A few months back, the mainstream media flirted with the idea that the remarkable recovery of one Bertie Ahern in the Irish election provided a pathway for Howard's Lazarus-with-an-artifical heart recovery. Yesterday, Michelle Grattan alluded to senior Liberals geeing up the flagging troops with tales of Bertie's heroics.

The problem with the Irish solution is that it is more Colm Begley than Tadgh Kennelly, offering the illusion of hope but no substance. Ahern did trail the opposition coalition early, but his opponent ran primarily on infrastructure problems in the burgeoning suburbs of Dublin and an attack on Ahern's credibility over shadowy loans. In reality, this was closer to Oz 2001 than 2007, because his Fine Gael opponent, Edna Kenny was seen as the weaker leader. Due to the complexities of the Irish voting system, minor party votes translate the preferred PM result into the final outcome. Ahern's record of growth and continued leadership outweighed the appeal of better services and Kenny provided no convincing case as to how the Celtic Tiger's prosperity could be improved. One could imagine a similar sense that Howard would defeat Beazley as the stronger leader in 2001, his common touch appeal aided by the children overboard scandal rather than diminished.

When musings of a late transition hit the airwaves, it recalled a rather calamatious political collapse. The Canadian election of 1993 featured a tired conservative party which came to grief by a combination of offending the ordinary voter over a political agreement on provincial autonomy and a deteriorating economy. In this respect it was as if Keating was leading the Tories straight off the cliff into the abyss. Having comprehensively offended almost everybody, the Tories had their support stolen by the opposition Liberals, and two new parties, one centred on Quebec and one composed of particularly anti-politician conservatives in the western provinces. Oh yes, and they put in a new leader who had no idea how to deal with the irate voters. The party's representation evaporated from 151 down to 2.

The Irish election is unhelpful primarily because the 'old-new dynamic' was not in play. Ireland has a tradition of short-lived governments rather than a trend for decade long governments generating an 'it's time' factor. The opposition leader was not particularly new and had no alternative vision other than providing services.

By contrast, Rudd's wedging of Howard's economic success provides a whole different paradigm through which his record is viewed. In this climate, the interest rate pledge and the workchoices insecurity become similar in many marginals to the Canadian sense of economic deterioration. The non-action on climate change does not so much offend voters as convince them Howard is not the man for the job. Thus his satisfaction rating reflects his past achievement, while he has no future support.

Howard has not been deposed simply because the Liberals are like a group of men who have locked the room, thrown away the key and started a fire from which they can't escape. Hence Costello (or anyone else) could not be strapped into the death seat in the same way Kim Campbell was in Canada.

However that does not detract from the similarities. Canada's conservatives were an amalgam of different interests which frayed badly when forces turned against them. The Liberal-National Coalition is a tight coalition of two parties, but the Liberal party itself is an amalgam of at least three competing groups, social/economic liberals, neo-liberal economists and blue-collar conservative nationalists. A fourth constituency, the 'moral values' right, bleeds over into the minor party Family First.

At first glance, the Coalition's implosion is nothing like Canada's but there are subtle hints that major fractures exist. The Nationals are running damaging three-corner contests in seats like Leichhardht, never mind their ongoing battle to win back seats like New England and Kennedy from independents. The social/economic 'true liberals' group is deserting to Rudd either directly or through preferences. The moral values group asserts disproportionate power for its voting base. And a wave of MPs are leaving off Howard from their campaign literature. The most serious rupture comes from ministers most notably Malcolm Turnbull leaving the Liberal party off campaign material altogether. Turnbull is now turning himself into the independent voice in cabinet on climate change.

This self-disendorsement creates the impression of a band of super-charged independents. Many campaigns are feigning a local focus, with reports of 'street hoons' being an issue from Perth to Brisbane.

If one was to add up the number of loyal-Howard acknowledging Liberal MPs left, Liberal HQ may not be much warmer than a winter's afternoon in Vancouver.

Team Howard is currently demonstrating what happens when the team loses form. Individual players play for themselves to the detriment of the team. The game plan goes out the window and the scoreboard can blow out depending on the killer instinct of the opposition. It is ironic that Howard was using that old football formula a team uses when the coach is heading for the dole queue: 'Mr Turnbull has the full confidence of the government'. It's pretty clear that the government, or even the Liberal party, does not have the full confidence of Malcolm of Wentworth.

The Liberals may not be routed as badly as the Canadian Progressive Conservatives were, but unless they come up with a core platform of values and beliefs that addresses the modern era and not the old battles of the 1950s, they will quickly find themselves replaced by parties that better represent the modern reality.