I wonder what it says in Bass and Braddon now?

Newspoll have helpfully released the results of last week's Tasmanian marginals poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday last week. Bear in mind at this stage Labor had no tax policy and the anti-union ads were going full tilt.

The poll revealed a 9.6% swing in Bass and only a 2.2% swing in Braddon. Liberals have painted the Braddon vote as support for the Mersey hospital and pulp mill interventions, and The Australian used all but one of its column inches to trumpet the 51-49 lead to Labor. It is a sad day for the Libs when the Australian has to promote a two percent deficit to the skies to get a positive angle.

Newspoll did not ask what punters thought of the Mersey, but the pulp mill question makes interesting reading. In Braddon, the decision is inconsequential to 77% of Liberal and 80% of Labor voters respectively. The net difference between voters less likely to support Liberal as compared to more likely is 7% and for Labor 6%, which equates to no real difference at all. Either the pulp mill is producing contended citizens or it has no impact.

In Bass, the mill is clearly a bone of contention. Around 65% of voters are not changing their vote over it, but a net total of 13% are less likely to vote for a major. Bingo! 13% say they will vote Green, which is a lot considering how Rudd has eroded the Green vote nationally. Bass had 8% vote Green, pretty much the national average. Bass' margin in this poll is somewhere between 52.5 and 61.5%. Quite simply, if the national trend continues as is, Bass is one of the many marginal seats locked in for Labor.

Braddon is clearly the Liberals' best bet, because it has an older demographic and a more forestry-orientated workforce. It also needs a desperate boost because it has the fastest rate of decline for any electorate in the country. However, remember the fear factor created by Latham's policy of locking up old growth forests was savage here with a 7.1% swing at the last election. No wonder Howard is putting his hopes on the Mersey and the pulp mill. Braddon is the only seat where this is a winner.

The timing of this poll makes the results even worse. Extrapolating the Braddon figures gives a range of 46.5-55.5 to Labor. 46.5% would give the Libs a swing of 2% on top of the 7.1% in 2004. That sounds unlikely. More likely is about 4% swing going back to Labor plus another 3-4% coming in support of Rudd. Factoring in the interventions probably cancels out the Latham swing, but that still put Labor pretty much in the 51-49 area.