Election Pontifications

More ramblings on the interminable election...

Libs cannot win with either a wall-wall state government or a union scare campaign as both have support levels of only around 40%...this sounds about as low as they can go in terms of support.

Yet another poll has come out saying that the Libs are about to become reacquainted with the dark side of the chamber, although interestingly it highlights the split between employment status and party support, namely if you've got a part-time job, going on and on about work choices giving us 316,000 mainly full time jobs makes no difference.

On the macro front, the fact that Mr Howard is galavanting around current affairs shows saying he is more popular than the party is evidence of his ironclad control of the party and nothing more. The polls should treat his approval rating in the past tense. Because they are not offering anything concrete for the future, all they are doing is conceding it to Mr Rudd. Offering the Howard-Costello two-for-one deal merely concedes Howard cannot beat Rudd, and makes Rudd the authentic article and Costello the cheap imitation (of both Howard and Rudd).

The political dynamic has also changed because Mr Rudd is viewed to be not only competent, but offering more than the incumbent. Hence the stratospheric approval ratings.

I have predicted below that the margin will close a bit but not enough for the Libs to win. They are running out of time and are seriously risking annihilation on an epic scale if they don't start putting up something resembling vision.

Factors which are going to influence votes:

Issues:

1. Health - huge issue in NSW and Qld (where ALP has most to gain)
2. Climate change - particularly among young voters + in coastal areas
3. Water - huge issue in SA
4. Work Choices
5. Interest rates (will either keep Howard in touch or the core mortgage belt voters will destroy Howard's outer suburban dynasty)

Seats:

1. In inner-city seats, particularly Wentworth, and in Tasmania the pulp mill fiasco is a wildcard
2. The quality of the respective candidates
3. Seats with high Chinese populations may lean towards Rudd
4. Seats with high Indian populations may protest over Haneef debacle
5. High proportion of single mothers - welfare changes and child care issues

Given Newspoll's election trend in 1996 looks remarkably similar to 2007, a little look at the fate of the ALP in 1996.

NSW (1996 swing - 7% 2PP, -8.7% primary vote)
2004 vote 36.7% 45% 2PP - Newspoll projection 47?%
Swing of 10-11% about 8-9% 2PP

Definite gains: Macquarie, Lindsay, Eden Monaro, Page, Cowper
50/50: Wentworth, Bennelong, Paterson, Robertson, Dobell
Possible seats: Greenway, Macarthur, North Sydney, Hughes

Minimum of 5 seats and potential maximum of 14

QLD (1996 swing -8.6 2PP
2004 vote 34.8% - Newspoll projection 44?%
Swing of 9% about 7% 2PP

Definite gains: Bonner, Moreton, Herbert
50/50: Blair, Longman, Wright, Petrie, Bowman, Dickson
Possible seats: Hinkler, Ryan, Leichardht

Minimum of 3 seats and maximum of 12

Victoria - projected swing of 6%

Definite Gains: Deakin, McMillian
50/50: La Trobe, Corangamite
Possible seats: Higgins, Goldstein, McEwen, Gippsland

Minimum of 2 seats and maximum of 8
Tasmania - Braddon, Bass both definite gains

NT - Solomon definite gain

SA - Kingston, Wakefield, Makin definite gains
50/50 Boothby, Sturt

Minimum of 5 seats and maximum of 7

WA - Hasluck, Stirling definite gains
Possible seat: Canning

Total:

Definite: 18
50/50: 14
Possible: 12

Total 44 - if ALP win 44 seats, they will have 104 seats which is a comprehensive flogging.

18 seats gives a total of 78 seats, which is a majority of 3

For Libs to get back in, they have to limit the ALP swing to under 6% in NSW. If it is any more than that, then to use a technical term, they will get absolutely smashed.

My prediction is ALP will win 30 seats if the Libs/Nats don't improve their vote during the campaign - that would give them 90 seats, the same number the Libs/Nats had in 1996.