No News is good News(Poll)

The collective groupthink that says that Howard shouldn't lose is in full swing with the latest Newspoll.

The headline figures make it look like there's been a stampede for the exit from Rudd's faux campaign launch with an 8% swing in the primary and two party-preferred vote. There are two possible reasons why this is a storm in a teacup (and of less interest than whether indeed the Storm can win the premiership, even for the Melbourne punters):

1. Circumstances - Rudd made a major health announcement and impressed on the international stage with his APEC performance in the previous polling period (plus his one-off appearance at Scores of New York), in the last week Howard confirmed he was contesting the election, in the process electing some kind of sympathy from his supporters/ and or neutrals.

2. Statistical trend - The poll average for the entire year is 57/43 to ALP. This poll is 55/45, the previous one is 59/41 - average is 57/43! The polls are in almost identical territory to in early August just after the subprime-loan inspired financial uncertainty.

The preferred PM figures demonstrate absolutely no change of any consequence. Indeed, the real story here is the fact that nearly 85% of voters have already made up their mind. Some quick maths on the primary vote figures versus those who won't change their vote reveals:

56% won't change vote ALP vote is 47% = 26.32%
30% unlikely to change = 14.1%
ALP total likely confirmed vote = 40.42

56% won't change vote Lib/Nat vote is 41% = 22.96%
30% unlikely to change = 12.3
Libs/Nats total likely confirmed vote = 35.26

If we assume the minor parties will get 12% of the vote and that ALP needs more than 52% to win enough seats for a majority and Lib/Nats can hang on with only 48% on two party-preferred:

With a preference flow of 60/40 to ALP - 7.2% to ALP/ 4.8% to Libs/Nats

ALP victory target: 44.8% primary vote + 7.2 = 52%
Libs/Nats victory target: 43.2% + 4.8 = 48%

ALP currently hold (at least) 5.6% of undecideds
Libs/Nats currently hold (no more than) 5.7% of undecideds

ALP to win need only to hold 4.4% of 5.6% [approx 80%]
Libs/Nats need all their current share plus 1.2% from elsewhere (probably straight from ALP)

Or put another way, ALP need 4.4 of 11.3% to give them their primary vote - 38.9% of undecideds
For Libs/Nats to win by almost nothing, with one of the lowest two-party preferred votes in history, it needs to convince nearly two-thirds of undecided voters considering a major party to give it their primary vote.

Given the psychology involved, if Rudd has a good couple of weeks and Newspoll reverts to 57/43, nothing has changed in the trend and ALP will win. For Libs/Nats to win the next poll must move the trend line back towards 53-57 rather than 55-59.