Cue Celine Dion

The sense that the electoral ship may just be sinking appears to be slowly creeping into the Libs, given the fears of (at least) a NSW wipeout for the government). That would seem a sensible conclusion given the Morgan Poll in Eden Monaro.

In fact the whole scenario reminds me of this exchange from James Cameron's Titanic:

enter Mr. Andrews, Titanic's designer with several ship drawings. He unfolds them on a table with great urgency. As Andrews explains the dire situation, Captain Smith asks eagerly about the pumps.

Andrews replies, From this moment, no matter what I do, Titanic will founder. Mr. Ismay, an executive with White Star Lines, says in disbelief, But this ship can't sink! Andrews sternly replies, She is made of iron, sir. I assure you she can and she will. It is a mathematical certainty.

Titanic sank because of the Archimedes principle, namely that a vessel will float so long as it displaces more water than its own weight. Once five compartments of the ship were breached, it displaced less water and accordingly was doomed to sink like a stone.

Similarly, the electorate works on pure mathematics. Whatever happens in a particular seat, there is an underlying current created by the national trend. The Libs remain able to hold enough seats to resist this trend as long as the ALP vote does not go over about 52.5%. Once it does, the wheels fall off very quickly. The strategy Howard has been running with targeted marginal seat intervention could be called the four bulkhead strategy - to protect the last compartment before the ship sinks. It almost looks like they're going for the lifeboat strategy in NSW.

John Clarke & Bryan Dawe certainly think so - their hilarious take on the situation had the camera pitching at 45 degrees and the band played 'Nearer My God to Thee' (link soon as ABC oblige)