who thinks that the Libs disintergration surpasses even the Swans' disintergration against Collingwood last week
The precipitous decline of the Libs from all-conquering, hubris-laden machine to cantankerous rabble can be traced to four key events:
1. Introduction of Work Choices
2. Rudd's election as leader - (yay! someone other than Beazley...)
3. Rudd's calm composure in the face of Howard's vitriolic attacks
4. The development of a self-perpetuating cycle of strong polls for Rudd and sense he will win (aka The Lemming Effect - i.e. that because everyone else is doing it, it's the right thing to do, in the manner lemmings are supposed to commit suicide en masse by jumping off cliffs)
The development of this cycle means that Rudd has the kind of support with the punters that Howard has owned for the past decade - namely that of the $1.15 million wagered on the election to date, 60% of that has been put on the ALP. The odds on Howard winning have nosedived - his chances of winning based on the punters' index are just 27%. The ALP's chances are officially better than Geelong's - and possibly just as epoch changing.
Following the conversion rate from Crikey's table...this means that the locked in vote for the ALP is about 54-46. Which means they've lost, and the next Newspoll will say about 60-40 to ALP, meaning it will all spark up again and look staggeringly incompetent. Mind you, if the reports that the Libs are running a 'firewall strategy' are correct, Howard is probably the best option to not lose by too much. Simply put, the Libs have to kick six goals in the last quarter and their supply into the forward line has been dreadful. They can either play safe and try not to get thrashed or go straight up the centre and take a few risks.
Running on their past record, the Libs were never going to win against a leader with a 60%+ approval rating. It means people are looking for more than the level of competence they have had. It also means that they fear that their protector is no longer suited to the current conditions, and hence they have no need for him. Or in the words of Governor Schwarzenegger 'goodbye little penguin'.
Interestingly, it seems that Howard either has conflicting polling or he just misled his party and gave it false hope to keep his job. Eden Monaro is apparently showing a swing of about 7% - on that tracking I've got it as an ALP gain by at least 0.7%, and if they win a semi-conservative retiree seat like that, there is a swing on that no amount of firewalling will defend.
I find it highly unlikely that Howard and friends will look credible for the following reasons:
1. Howard did not articulate a future agenda until 'five minutes to midnight'
2. Costello is now going to be treated like the Antipodean Gordon Brown. He isn't. According to AC Nielsen polls, Costello has an approval rating of 70% as treasurer, about 30% as PM. In the UK, the dynamic was completely different, Blair was seen as all spin, Brown a return to substance.
3. Putting Costello up as co-consul and the boy king changes the equation. Instead of Rudd being 'young Howard', Costello is 'mini-Rudd'. Why on earth would you vote for change by re-electing the aged leader on the promise of getting his cheap imitation unpopular successor. Costello is to Howard as Tiberius was to Augustus, the guy who'll probably have to take over as there are on other options.
4. According to the dark arts of Crosby Textor, the Libs only lead on the economy, interest rates, experience and something nebulous called 'heading in the right direction'. They've lost control of the intangibles such as preferred PM and hence they are defending the citadel, while most of their electoral territory is overrun with Rudd-ite raiding parties.
5. Howard's alternatives are to talk about the future - associated with Rudd; climate change + water - ALP issues.
Any excessively optimistic Libs or pessimistic ALP supporters feel free to comment : )
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