The real election contest

Kevin Rudd's Labor juggernaut has all but dispatched John Howard's spluttering Liberal machine (with unhinged National caboose) to the annals of history. However, Rudd's success is not total. The same political shift to the right that has facilitated Rudd's centralisation of Labor has opened up a new contest: with the Greens. Whereas Rudd has been fighting his battles on the right flank, neutralising Howard's wedges and attempts to posit him as economically irresponsible, the Greens have been agitating to be both the true believers on climate change and the 'third party insurance' in the Senate.

Labor lost a large number of disgruntled voters to the Greens at the last election, mainly disenchanted with the parties' incompetence as much as environmental policy. Under Beazley Mark II, Greens preferences elevated a pretty ordinary 40% primary vote to a stratospheric two party-preferred lead. Rudd's ascension consolidated Green defectors into Labor's primary vote. The Greens suddenly found an electorate focussed on water and climate change issues poised to turn away from it. On a micro level, this perplexed position may have given them something in common with Liberals facing annihilation in 2001.

The Tasmanian pulp mill - and specifically Garrett's forced acquiescence - is akin to the Tampa boarding for the Labor/Green dynamic. It focussed attention back on a physical environmental issue rather than the perception of Labor's competence. Just as in 2001 when children overboard reventilated the Liberals' Tampa show of strength, Rudd's perceived repudiation of Garrett's 'sign-first-and-ask-questions-later' approach on climate change solidified concerns on the Labor/Green faultline and caused Labor's credibility on environmental issues to fall.

The result is starting to show up in marginal seat polling. In Tasmanian seats, the pulp mill issue is felt most keenly. The seat of Bass has turned from Labor winning on primaries to heavily reliant on Green preferences. However, the real key may be on the mainland. Climate change is consistently rated among the top issues with Liberal voters, particularly in seats with a high proportion of 'tree/sea changers' such as Eden Monaro, Corangamite and Richmond. Seats such as North Sydney, Wentworth, Ryan, Sturt and Stirling have a high number of true liberals flirting with crossing the line to Labor.

It has been assumed that these voters are frightened to move across the 'Green barrier' on economic grounds. This may be the case, but the primary source of their disillusionment is inaction by Howard on climate change. If Rudd is seen as not a lot better, then it is possible that Liberal voters may go halfway and vote Green but preference their local Liberal. This probably won't affect the result: Howard's stocks with the 'battlers' are at an all-time low. However it might turn a potential annihilation into a close defeat. A primary swing of 4% from Labor to Green will cost Labor 1.2% of their margin in each seat, and in seats with big margins to make up that may be the difference between winning and losing.

In any case, a government elected heavily on the back of Green preferences will have to take serious notice of Green policy proposals across the board.