In search of the next compromise candidate?

The Federal Liberal party is in a mess. Howard's failure to adhere to his own formula for departing, 'so long as it is in the best interests of the party', saw his leadership explode in the mighty supernova that was the 2007 election. Like many supernovae, the remnants of Howard's pull on the party have become a black hole, tearing the tenuous strands holding it together. Howard's legacy was to leave the party reliant on a motley brew of wedge politics and social conservatism. He ran hard lines on issues such as immigration, national security, climate change and reconciliation. His biggest problem was that he could parry Costello's fractionally less aggressive approach, but not his deputy's sense of entitlement. Costello did not have time to become Howard's slightly more innovative clone.

The result was a thrashing and a leadership no one either the electorate or the party could tolerate. Turnbull, the people's choice, has a Whitlamesque streak which gets straight up the nose of Howard's guardians. His style is pugnacious but his politics is dubious to the conservatives, being the former champion of Keating's republic. Abbott, the hardliners' choice, is nicknamed 'People Skills' in the same manner that redheads earn the moniker 'Bluey'. He is the perfect choice to lead a right-wing band straight into the wilderness and become the Iain Duncan Smith of Australian politics. As neither had the numbers and Julie Bishop's Liberal-model Julia Gillard was still in Frankstein's workshop, the hapless Brendan Nelson was drafted into the leadership.

In picking Nelson, the Liberals must have hoped for a concillator capable of ameliorating the harshness of Howard's legacy. Instead, they got a weak leader being killed by the kindness of Kevin. Nelson has been asked to join a war cabinet on indigenous health and take part in the great apology ceremonies. Nelson's speech was somewhere between a brave attempt at policy on the run and an absymal disaster. He tried to strike a Crean-like mood of supporting the people, but not the policy, imitating the former Labor leader's take on farewelling troops for Iraq. The audience got a mishmash of homily and 'rose coloured history' which was difficult to follow and even harder to swallow. The latest poll figures render Nelson the political equivalent of camomile tea, weak, soothing and of little consequence.

After Friday's farce, seemingly led by Joe Hockey rather than the morose Nelson, the Liberal leader seems well on his way to becoming an ex-parrot. The question remains do any of the contenders want the job. Turnbull is gaining traction against Labor's trainee Treasurer, Wayne Swan, and might want extra time to increase his stocks. Abbott still remains unelectable, but is running hard on the Burke links to Rudd to improve his profile as arch headkicker. Both may want to keep their powder dry behind a more moderately inclined leader. Bishop is still building her experience and profile, and has had to capitulate over AWAs, so she is not in favour.

This leads us back to Joe Hockey, who seems to have the appropriate taste for absurdity to take on the job. Anyone who declares Rudd to be lazy with a straight face has gumption. Whereas Nelson was the compromise for Abbott, Hockey would be the paler version of Turnbull.