Garnaut throws down the climate gauntlet

Professor Garnaut's interim report on Australia's climate change position contains some stark assessments of our situation. The news is not good: in our fossil fuel-reliant global economy, economic growth is intrinsically linked to emissions growth. The explosion of activity in China and India has acclerated emissions onto a dangerous trajectory.

Garnaut's final report will deal with mitigation and burden sharing strategies for Australia but his message is clear. In order to avoid the climate roulette wheel, we must find a way to uncouple growth in the economy with growth in emissions. This means that the relatively low-hanging fruit of energy efficiency and conservation must be picked as a matter of urgency, and interim targets set to begin the task of reining in the runaway pollution rate.

It is equally clear that the Rudd Government professed benchmark of 60% emission reductions on 2000 levels will be barely adequate, and will undoubtedly have to be extended on the negotiating table. The little-known fact that Rudd's methodology stabilises emission levels at 550 ppm of carbon dioxide is apparent when one crunches Garnaut's numbers. Garnaut favours the EU and IPCC recommended figure of 450ppm, but acknowledges that this will be politically onerous.

Back of an envelope calculations equate the 450 ppm target with an Australian emissions reduction of 55-80% by 2050, depending on global factors. Clearly, given the angst this will provoke in some quarters, such cuts cannot be embarked upon without the full cooperation of the new emitting nations. The successor to Kyoto then, will have to contain a table of targets for developed nations, intense research and development for renewable energy and implementation in nations, particularly China and India, and an accompanying table of targets for developing nations. Australia may well need to sign up to at least a 15% reduction target by 2020 to highlight the urgency of the emission reduction project to the developing world.