Rudd's seismic faultlines

Kevin Rudd has commanded a very degree of support against an initially stale then plain out incoherent alternative. However that megalithic support does not come without risks, some of which are now poking out into the collective consciousness. Most of Rudd's risks stem from a clash of worthy but contradictory policy positions, complicated by prejudices and assumptions inherent in the Australian political context.

The most obvious - and yet to be played out fully - is the clash between his firm support for climate change action and his emphasis on government minimising the pain felt to households through higher grocery, fuel and utility prices. This clash is further complicated by the national addiction to cut-price (compared to world standards) fuel. Complicating this clash further is the need to protect the mining workforce from suffering while alternative technology is being developed. It is interesting to note that the Resources Minister, Martin Ferguson, is a former head of the ACTU and an advocate for carbon capture and storage. Ferguson is not going anywhere in the forseeable future, as he will clearly be needed to persuade the unions as much as Garrett is required to persuade the public.

Labor needs to work out a way to deliver meaningful carbon cuts, restructuring mining industries and protecting the public from economic pain in a way that is both environmentally and philosophically sustainable. One suspects one will need continuing, almost indispensable levels of popularity among the party faithful to push through such an agenda.

Another brewing clash operates on a more personal level, but still exhibits the dynamic of clashing policy imperatives within a wider political context. Rudd came to power with considerable support from the anti-WorkChoices juggernaut. While Rudd clearly wants to distance himself from the more onerous of the ACTU's demands, the issue of the infamous work/life balance remains moot. Rudd's slogan ad nauseam is working families - and an essential part of that work is not working them to the bone, like WorkChoices could potentially do without the compensation of penalty rates.

However at the same time, Rudd is an acknowledged workaholic. Whereas Garrett might have sung for Midnight Oil, Rudd burns the stuff on a par with China's growing carbon emissions. Not only that, Rudd is rumoured to suffer from a bad case of 'unempathetic boss syndrome'. Sufferers of UBS believe that their employees should work exactly the same amount they do, regardless of their other commitments or the level of importance of their work. Anyhow, this is bringing howls of protest from the public service, which Rudd is currently using to flay the previous government with. Fortunately for Rudd, everyone believes the public service is lazy, but if this problem escalates to strikes or mass resignations then it could potentially expose Rudd's position on work issues as hypocritical and counterproductive.

There is just the smallest possiblility that this crack in the facade could open up and start to make Hockey the WorkChoices salesman look like his amiable self again. If the Liberals do recast themselves as caring, sharing populists, it might lead to appalling policy on their part but at least keep them competitive when history suggests they are two steps away from being booted out the tenth storey window.

Under Nelson, the opposition looks set to capitalise on whatever whingeing group of disenfranchised it can and feel their pain. If they are genuinely badly off, that will give credibility to the whole approach. While Nelson and his acolytes seek to hold off their inevitable demise (either by extinction or Turnbull) they will clutch to any old piece of flotsam going past. Rudd needs to maintain integrity in his decision making and policy program to convince the people of the merits of his government and the flimsiness of the alternative.